FlowWager Learn
Effective Date: August 20, 2025 | Last Updated: August 20, 2025
1. What Is FlowWager
FlowWager is a decentralized binary prediction platform built on the Flow blockchain. Participants use FLOW tokens to express beliefs about future events by staking on either a Yes or a No outcome. The distribution of stakes across outcomes reflects the community’s implied probability for each event.
2. How FlowWager Works
- Pick a Market: Each market resolves to either Yes or No.
- Stake FLOW: Choose your side and stake FLOW tokens. Stakes are locked in a smart contract until resolution.
- Implied Probability: The ratio of FLOW on each side indicates the market’s current consensus.
- Resolution: When the outcome becomes known, the contract finalizes the winning side based on predefined rules.
- Payouts: After deducting any applicable fee, the remaining pool is distributed proportionally to winners.
3. Why Use FlowWager
- Powered by FLOW: Native utility for the Flow ecosystem.
- Simple Binary Design: No order books—just Yes or No.
- Transparent and On-Chain: Stakes, resolutions, and payouts are verifiable on the blockchain.
- Collective Intelligence: Market prices often track real-world probabilities effectively.
- No House Edge: FlowWager is a neutral protocol; it is not your counterparty.
4. Prediction Markets Overview
Prediction markets are mechanisms where participants buy or stake value on future outcomes. Prices or stake ratios act as real-time probabilities. Incentives for correctness drive more accurate forecasting than polls in many contexts. Common categories include sports, politics, crypto, finance, culture, and other verifiable events.
5. Important Considerations
- Risk: If your prediction is incorrect, you may lose your staked FLOW tokens. Only stake what you can afford to lose.
- Restricted Regions: FlowWager is not available in the USA or jurisdictions that prohibit or restrict cryptocurrency use.
- No Financial Advice: FlowWager provides an information and education platform; it does not provide investment or legal advice.
- On-Chain Transparency: All activity is public, immutable, and auditable on the Flow blockchain.
6. Getting Started
- Create a Flow Wallet: Use a Flow-compatible wallet (e.g., Blocto, Lilico) and secure your seed phrase.
- Acquire FLOW Tokens: Buy FLOW via an exchange or DEX and transfer them to your wallet.
- Connect to FlowWager: Visit the platform and link your wallet.
- Explore Markets: Browse active markets, choose an outcome, and stake FLOW.
- Track & Withdraw: Monitor events and claim payouts after resolution if you were correct.
7. Educational Use Cases
- Learn Blockchain and Smart Contracts: Observe how on-chain logic secures value and automates payouts.
- Study Probability and Game Theory: See how incentives shape collective forecasts.
- Alternative Data for Analysis: Use market consensus as an input for research and analytics.
- Community Engagement: Coordinate predictions around governance or social outcomes.
8. Payout Calculation
FlowWager distributes winnings using a proportional (pro-rata) model. After deducting any platform or market-level fee, the remaining pool is split among all participants on the correct outcome in proportion to their stake.
Formula:
Payout = (User’s Stake ÷ Total Winning Stake) × (Total Pool − Fee)
Worked Example:
Total Pool: 1,000 FLOW | Platform Fee: 2% (20 FLOW) | Remaining Pool: 980 FLOW
Outcome A (Winner): 400 FLOW | Outcome B (Loser): 600 FLOW
Alice stakes 100 FLOW on Outcome A → Alice’s share = 100 ÷ 400 = 25% → Payout = 25% × 980 = 245 FLOW
| User | Stake (FLOW) | Outcome Picked | Result | Payout (FLOW) | Profit (FLOW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | 100 | A (Winner) | Win | 245.00 | +145.00 |
| Bob | 150 | A (Winner) | Win | 367.50 | +217.50 |
| Carol | 150 | A (Winner) | Win | 367.50 | +217.50 |
| Dave | 600 | B (Loser) | Lose | 0.00 | −600.00 |
Note: Fees and parameters may vary by market and are disclosed before you stake. All values and examples above are illustrative.